Definitions & Methodology
This tool performs a workforce gap analysis by comparing the regional supply of new graduates (Talent Supply) to the projected demand for occupations (Labor Demand). This document explains every step of that calculation and the data behind it.
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I Labor Demand (Occupational Projections)
The foundation of the labor demand data is the set of occupational projections provided by the user — specifically the estimated Annual Openings for occupations within the specified region. Annual Openings represent the average number of job openings expected per year over the projection period, combining both new positions created by growth and existing positions vacated through retirements or departures.
This data is supplemented with historical and current employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program to provide employment trend context within the PDF profiles.
All economic projections are estimates. They carry inherent uncertainty due to economic variables and should be used to supplement — rather than solely determine — career or policy decisions.
II Talent Supply (Graduate Completions)
To estimate the supply of new talent entering the regional labor market, the analysis quantifies graduates from local postsecondary institutions using the following steps:
- Institutional Identification: The tool identifies all postsecondary institutions located within the user-specified MSA counties using FIPS county codes from the IPEDS Location file.
- Graduate Quantification: The analysis counts graduates from those institutions using an average of two academic years (base and recent completions data). This produces a stable, recession-resistant estimate rather than relying on a single year. Each individual is counted once regardless of second majors, so the metric captures people entering the labor force rather than total credentials awarded.
- Program-to-Occupation Mapping: Graduate fields of study (CIP codes — Classification of Instructional Programs) are mapped to occupations (SOC codes — Standard Occupational Classification) using a CIP-to-SOC crosswalk. Because one program can lead to multiple occupations, a single graduate may be counted toward the supply of more than one SOC code. Regional totals therefore represent attributed supply, not unique individuals.
III Gap Analysis & Formulas
The "gap" represents the difference between the supply of graduates and the demand for occupations. Three distinct gap metrics are calculated to provide a range of estimates reflecting different assumptions about labor market competition.
Supply − Annual Openings
A direct comparison between the supply of graduates for a given field and the demand for that single occupation. Assumes graduates only compete for jobs in their primary occupation. The most optimistic estimate of supply availability.
Supply − (Annual Openings + Competing Openings)
Accounts for the fact that graduates may qualify for — and compete across — several related occupations simultaneously. Competing Openings is the sum of annual openings for all occupations in the predefined competitor list for this SOC. The most conservative estimate.
(Simple Gap + Competing Gap) ÷ 2
The arithmetic average of the Simple and Competing gaps. Represents a balanced, moderate estimate of the labor market condition and is the primary metric displayed throughout the tool.
IV Reading the Results
All three gap metrics use the same sign convention: a positive number indicates a surplus of graduates; a negative number indicates a shortage.
More graduates are entering the labor market than there are job openings. Supply exceeds demand for this occupation.
There are more job openings than graduates available to fill them. Demand exceeds supply for this occupation.
The Midpoint Gap is used as the primary headline figure throughout the tool because it balances the optimism of the Simple Gap against the conservatism of the Competing Gap.
V Degree Types Included in Supply
Not all credentials are included in the supply calculation. The analysis includes only credentials at the associate's level and above. Certificates and other short-term credentials are excluded because they do not reliably signal readiness for the full range of occupations mapped in the CIP-to-SOC crosswalk.
| IPEDS AWLEVEL Code | Credential Type | Included |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Postsecondary certificate < 1 year | No |
| 2 | Postsecondary certificate 1–4 years | No |
| 3 | Associate's degree | Yes |
| 5 | Bachelor's degree | Yes |
| 6 | Post-baccalaureate certificate | Yes |
| 7 | Master's degree | Yes |
| 8 | Post-master's certificate | Yes |
| 17 | Doctor's degree — research/scholarship | Yes |
| 18 | Doctor's degree — professional practice | Yes |
| 19 | Doctor's degree — other | Yes |
VI PDF Profile Data Sources
Generated PDF occupational profiles are supplemented with standardized, national-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide broader context beyond the regional gap figures.
- Regional Employment (Historical & Current): Total employment figures for the MSA are sourced from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program for both a historical reference year and the most recent available year.
- Wages: Wage data is also from BLS OEWS. The profile displays a percentile distribution from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Wages that are "top-coded" by the BLS are displayed as "≥$239,200", indicating the actual wage is at or above that threshold.
- Typical Education & Training: Information on typical entry-level education, required work experience, and on-the-job training requirements is sourced from the BLS National Employment Matrix.
- Educational Attainment of Current Workforce: The distribution of educational credentials held by people currently employed in an occupation is sourced from the BLS National Employment Matrix.
VII Data Considerations & Limitations
The following characteristics of the underlying data affect how results should be interpreted. They reflect real features of publicly available government data, not errors in the tool.
- Graduate Double-Counting in Regional Totals: Because one program (CIP code) can map to multiple occupations, a single graduate may appear in the supply count for more than one SOC code. The supply figure shown for any individual occupation is accurate; however, summing supply across all occupations will overcount unique graduates. Regional supply totals are best understood as attributed supply, not headcount.
- Data Suppression: Government agencies suppress data for specific occupations or regions to protect the confidentiality of employers or workers in areas with low employment. Suppressed data appears as missing values within the analysis.
- Regional Variability: Not all regions report data for every occupation. An occupation may be absent from a dataset due to local economic structure or limited regional demand, not an error in the data.
- National vs. Regional Training Data: Educational attainment and typical training data in the PDF profiles reflect national occupational averages from BLS, not local conditions. Regional employer preferences or educational norms may differ.