This tool performs a workforce gap analysis by comparing the regional supply of new graduates (Talent Supply) to the projected demand for occupations (Labor Demand). This document outlines the methodology used to generate the analysis and occupational profiles.

I. Labor Demand (Occupational Projections)

The foundation of the labor demand data is the set of occupational projections provided by the user, specifically the estimated Annual Openings for occupations within the specified region. This data is supplemented with historical context from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

It is important to note that all economic projections are estimates. They carry inherent uncertainty due to economic variables and should be used to supplement, rather than solely determine, career or policy decisions.

II. Talent Supply (Graduate Completions)

To estimate the supply of new talent, the analysis quantifies graduates from local educational institutions using the following process:

1. Institutional Identification: The tool first identifies all postsecondary institutions located within the user-specified Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) counties.
2. Graduate Quantification: The analysis counts graduates from these local institutions, using an average of 2019 and 2023 completions data to ensure a stable estimate. This methodology counts each individual once, regardless of second majors or multiple degrees. The focus is on the number of people entering the labor force, not the total number of degrees awarded.
3. Program-to-Occupation Mapping: To connect graduates to relevant employment, the tool utilizes a crosswalk to map educational fields of study (Classification of Instructional Programs, or CIP codes) to their corresponding occupations (Standard Occupational Classification, or SOC codes).

III. Gap Analysis Calculation

The "gap" represents the difference between the supply of graduates and the demand for occupations. This tool calculates three distinct gap metrics to provide a comprehensive assessment:

• Simple Gap: A direct comparison between the supply of graduates and the demand for a single occupation.
  (Simple Gap = Avg. Annual Supply - Annual Openings)
• Competing Gap: A more complex metric that accounts for labor market competition. It assumes graduates from a program may be qualified for several different occupations. This gap compares the total supply of graduates against the combined demand from the primary occupation *plus* all other occupations that compete for the same talent pool.
• Midpoint Gap: A balanced metric that represents the average of the Simple Gap and the Competing Gap, providing a moderate estimate of the labor market condition.

IV. Profile Data Sources (PDF Generation)

The generated PDF occupational profiles are supplemented with standardized, national-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide additional context.

• Wages: Wage data is sourced from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program. The profile displays a percentile range, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. In cases where a wage is "top-coded" by the BLS, it will be displayed as "$239,200+", indicating the actual wage is at or above that value.
• Training: Information on typical education, work experience, and on-the-job training is sourced from the BLS National Employment Matrix.

V. Data Considerations and Limitations

When interpreting the analysis, users should be aware of the following data characteristics and limitations:

• Data Suppression: Government agencies may suppress or withhold data for a specific occupation or region. This is typically done to protect the confidentiality of employers or workers in areas with low population or employment. Suppressed data will appear as missing within the analysis.
• Regional Variability: Not all regions report data for every occupation. An occupation may be absent from a dataset due to the local economic structure or limited regional demand, rather than an error in the data. This variability can limit comparability between different regions.